Archive → September, 2010
Brady extending lead in Illinois governor’s race
So young he almost needs to visit www.acnewash.org, Illinois GOP candidate for governor Bill Brady seems to be on his way toward a landslide victory in President Obama’s home state; the GOP state senator is polling at 50 percent according to Rasmussen’s latest numbers, while Democratic challenge Pat Quinn is at 37 percent and Green Party candidate Rich Whitney is at four percent.
Brady could become the first GOP governor of Illinois, if this trend holds, since George Ryan lost to Rod Blogojevich in 2002. Quinn is facing high negatives in the wake of the Blogojevich scandal.
Tancredo handing Colorado governorship to Dems
By dropping out of the GOP and joining the US Constitution Party, Tom Tancredo, a long-time Republican, is splitting the vote considerably in Colorado and helping Democrat John Hickenlooper into the governor’s mansion. Despite needing face lift cream, Tancredo was an appealing conservative in the Senate for many years, but he grew tired of his party’s flirtation with increasingly “Democrat lite” policies.
Unfortunately, Tancredo and the GOP-sponsored Dan Maes are splitting the vote in the Rocky Mountain state; the latest poll has Tancredo garnering 25 percent while Maes polls at 21 percent. Hickenlooper’s only managing a meager 46 percent – as much as Tancredo and Maes combined. But with the conservative vote split, Hickenlooper is likely Colorado’s next governor.
Nevada race too close to call
In one of the nation’s most scrutinized races, reigning Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is locked in a dead heat with Tea Party-backed GOP candidate Sharron Angle. Depending on which poll you listen to, Reid and Angle are either tied, or leading each other by only one or two points, well within the margin of error.
Of course, Nevada Republicans aren’t thrilled Angle prevailed, as other candidates had been polling with a healthier lead over the scandal-plagued and controversial Reid, whom many have picked to become the second sitting Senate leader to lose his seat while leading the Senate for his party, in the last decade or so.
The previous Democratic leader to enjoy such ignominy was South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle, who was unseating by Republican John Thune back in 2004. The only difference is that Daschle was the Senate Minority Leader; if he loses his seat, Reid would face greater ignominy as he is the Senate Majority Leader. The stress is enough to make a liberal leader like Reid consider diet energy pills, I’d imagine…
McMahon trailing Blumenthal, but pulling close
Former WWE CFO Linda McMahon was once a 58-33 underdog for the Senate seat in Connecticut, where Chris Dodd is retiring and Democrat Richard Blumenthal is hoping to retain the seat against McMahon. It’s not like McMahon is smoking Backwoods cigars and twiddling her thumbs in the leaning-blue state; she’s worked hard in the past months and, according to the latest Quinnipac poll, has pulled to a 51-45 distance from Blumenthal.
That six-point distance is just within the margin of error and now makes the race closer than the Dems hoped it would be when McMahon first prevailed as the GOP candidate of choice. It will be interesting to see if McMahon can narrow the gap further in these last six weeks or so and pull off the upset.
Rubio takes lead in Florida Senate race
When he started his campaign, the GOP establishment begged Mark Rubio not to challenge Charlie Crist and they gave Rubio almost no chance of winning, predicting he’d fare as well as Wal-Mart tin cookware would do pitted against high-quality enamel cookware. In other words, not very well at all.
But a new Fox News/Pulse poll just released puts Rubio well ahead of his competitors; Rubio polls at 43 percent in the state, while independent former GOP governor Charlie Crist polls with 27 percent, and the Democrat nominee, Meek, barely registers 21 percent. With a 16-percent lead, Rubio is looking to be the man to beat come November.
Ayotte-Lamontagne still undecided in New Hampshire
New Hampshire attorney general Kelly Ayotte, backed by both establishment Republicans and Sarah Palin – a rare distinction – was leading marginally as I write this, against Tea Party-backed challenger Ovide Lamontagne for the right to face Paul Hodes for the US Senate seat in New Hampshire.
But the vote is close and could still go either way at this hour; Ayotte leads by a mere 1,200 votes with 79.7 percent of districts reporting in, and so no one’s cashing in their Orlando vacation packages just yet; this one will go down to the wire and may be close enough to trigger a mandatory recount, regardless of the outcome.
Ayotte is projected as beating Hodes, while Lamontagne is projected as losing to Hodes.
Paladino will face Cuomo
Though his chances in November are nowhere near as reliable as a 5th wheel warranty, Republican Carl Paladino fended off a challenge from Rick Lazio for the right to face the popular Democrat, Andrew Cuomo, for the New York governor’s chair.
Paladino prevailed with nearly 63 percent of the vote to Lazio’s 37 percent, and while Lazio is considered possibly the more conservative of the two candidates, Lazio’s name has been mud ever since he muddled his bid against Hillary Clinton for the US Senate seat in New York back in 2000. Lazio barely registered against Cuomo; Paladino has a chance to at least keep the margin to single-digits.
Rangel survives primary challenge
Charles Rangel survived a primary challenge by Adam Clayton Powell on Tuesday to move forward toward possible re-election in New York’s Harlem distract, despite Rangel being charged with over 15 ethics charges that forced him from several of his powerful committee posts … in a Democrat-controlled Senate.
Rangel, who almost always appears in protective clothing, is a well-known figure on the news media circuit as well as capital hill, but surprised many when he refused to step down following the ethics charges. Given the solid-blue status of his district, uncontested GOP challenger Michael Faulkner is not expected to make it much of a contest in November.
O’Donnell wins in Delaware
In a state where the GOP hates conservatives almost as much as Democrats do, Tea Party and Sarah Palin-endorsed candidate Christine O’Donnell has upset Mike Castle, the RINO-in-waiting who state GOP leaders had backed, even though Castle votes with the Democrats more than even John McCain and Joe Lieberman do.
While the Delaware GOP is acting like O’Donnell’s victory is the political equivalent of a Mesothelioma diagnosis, most of those same people never gave O’Donnell a chance to begin with… in the primary.
While Delaware is a solid blue state, what good would turning over that seat to a GOP leader like Castle have done, as it would not have resulted in any real difference on voting records. At least now, the people of Delaware have a clear choice in candidates, even if O’Donnell isn’t the choice they embrace.
Ryan warns against overconfidence
While some Republicans are already preparing eBay auctions for all of Nancy Pelosi’s Prada handbags, anticipating a GOP takeover of at least the House of Representatives this fall, Paul Ryan, once of the GOP’s rising stars, is going against conventional wisdom and warning Republicans that they can blow it.
Unveiling his pragmatic side, when Ryan was asked on CNBC on Monday if the Dems could retain the House, he replied, “Sure. They’ve got a lot of money and muscle, and they haven’t deployed it yet.”
This is why it’s important that the GOP pay attention to the Tea Party movement and offer an issues-based agenda as an alternative to Obamaism. If they rely purely on “we don’t like the party currently in power,” it wouldn’t take much to swing just enough sentiment around again to undo the potential upset.
Dem future Pelosi-less?
Even though she’s facing certain victory against John Dennis in San Francisco, a liberal bastion, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will almost certainly be forced out of leadership – likely through retirement – if the Dems lose the House in November. It’s a prediction everyone from Newt Gingrich to the Politico are making. That means that, if current trends hold, Speaker Pelosi could be sending her Christmas cards from San Fran, rather than Washington DC this year.
Pelosi is seen as uniquely divisive and has a load of corruption scandals brewing that would have already forced her out of office if the Dems didn’t possess such massive control of the Federal government at the moment. But if winning is “the best deodorant,” as some football coaches like to say, guess what losing could do to Speaker Pelosi?
Even Dems admit privately they could do better; and if the party loses control in November, Pelosi will be the first expected to fall on her sword as penance.
