WonderfulPessimist.com

Even two Democratic pollsters, Patrick Caddell and Douglas Schoen, are afraid that if Obama-Pelosi-Reid health care reform is shoved through while ignoring current polls, that Dems could suffer major losses in next fall’s midterm elections, as they will have to face the beat of the stainless steel drums of an irate American electorate. Just check out their column in the Washington Post if you don’t want to believe me.

According to Caddell and Schoen, the Dems could lose as many as 30 house seats and eight Senate seats in the coming election cycle. In the Senate, that would give Dems only a one-vote majority at 51-49. In the House, a shift of 30 seats would still keep the Dems in power, moving them from 255-178 to only 225-208, but a loss of such proportions would likely cost Nancy Pelosi her Speaker-ship.

Of course, these are somewhat optimistic views from Democratic minds; their fear is that if the Dems get belligerent about health care reform, voters could get irate enough to push those Dem losses even higher, which could lead to a shift in the majority in the House; the Senate might not be as easy to shift to GOP hands in a single election cycle, but a narrow, one-vote majority would be a huge blow to the White House and the party, and would necessitate actual power-sharing with the GOP, rather than talk of being “one vote shy” of not having to acknowledge that the GOP even exists.

Personally, I don’t expect Obama-Pelosi-Reid to back down; and I expect the losses in November, as a result, to be even more significant than Caddell and Schoen suspect. Yet if the GOP returns to power in at least the House, they will need to continue to offer a fresh set of ideas and a real difference from Democratic solutions to retain that power; otherwise, if they make the same mistakes they made before – offering a choice of only Democrat Lite rather than real conservative solutions – their gains will be temporary, and they could even assure President Obama’s re-election in 2012, which currently does not seem certain at all.

John McCain wants to label it “a tale told by an idiot,” but whether that’s true or not, GOP US Senate challengers in Arizona J.D. Hayworth is certainly “full of sound and fury,” though it remains to be seen if his latest ad campaign in his challenge of McCain for the GOP nod is “signifying nothing” or not.

Hayworth, a one-time talk radio host, launched an ad critical of McCain’s conservative credentials, using an ad that paints McCain’s face blue, as in the movie Avatar. It’s a shiny, glitzy, with-it ad with a biting sense of humor and savvy pop-culture IQ filling the screens of netbooks nation-wide.

So of course, McCain and crew are demanding an apology for Hayworth calling McCain a “nominee for best conservative actor.” And here I thought it was that “sound like Reagan, govern like Carter” fellow currently in the White House.

Huh…

Speaking perhaps from his vacation rental Hawaii-style, former DNC leader Howard Dean shocked the world recently by sounding… sane. He criticized Dem leaders in Congress and the White House for making the current health care proposals before Congress the hill on which they’ll live or die.

“The plan, as it comes from the Senate, hangs out every Democrat who’s running for office to dry — including the president, in 2012, because it makes him defend a plan that isn’t in effect, essentially, yet,” Dean said in a recent interview on the liberal-leaning Bill Press radio show.

Of course, Dean then reverts to form and blames the powerless GOP for the situation, but that’s to be expected from Dr. Death. The shocking bit is that he actually spoke the truth despite the Dem talking points that prohibit independent thought from the chief executive.

Maybe this proves just how crazy Dean is…

President Barak Obama is playing right into GOP plans with his latest call for congressional Democrats to ignore the negative polls and political consequences, fall on their swords and pass his health care reform plan, “now.” Whether the Dems in both houses, who enjoy overwhelming (if not gripe-proof) majorities, will commit political suicide for their President remains to be seen.

Still, give President Obama credit for getting into the testosterone cream, at least; however unpopular it may be, he believes in his socialization of one-sixth of the US economy, and, like Custer, he’s making his stand on this particular hill.

Time will tell if Obama and his fellow Dems will fare better than good ol’ George Armstrong…

Evan Bayh, the Democrats’ version of John McCain – a long-time party member who only voted with his party on occasion – has decided to call it quits after only two terms as the US Senator from Indiana. While Bayh’s resignation makes it more possible for the GOP to reclaim the seat once held by Dan Quayle and Dan Coats.

Unlike fellow Dem John Edwards, Bayh’s decision to retire from the Senate has nothing to do with herpes simplex virus 2 in any way, shape or form. He simply believes he can do more good for the country in the private sector, rather than in government.

Really? And Bayh was a Dem? How’d they let him get away with thoughts like that for two terms? He sounds like your average Newt Gingrich Republican!

Massachusetts US Senator-elect Scott Brown was scheduled to be seated on Thursday, February 11, but will now be sworn in about a week early, on Thursday, February 4. Brown demanded his official seating in the US Senate take place sooner when he learned some Dems in the Senate were trying to schedule key votes prior to his taking office. Brown, a Republican, is the 41st GOP vote and ends the Dems’ filibuster-proof majority in the Senate – at least until some rogue RINO breaks ranks.

While this means Dems no longer have unfettered access to the MMF drawer, it by no means diminishes their substantial majority and ability to pass just about anything they want to pass, considering they are nine votes over a 50-50 split even with Sen. Brown sworn in.

Of course, look for Sen. Harry Reid to blame anything and everything that doesn’t work out on Sen. Brown and the GOP from here on out, because, of course, anything short of a “we don’t have to play fair” majority is, for Reid, “a stranglehold on power by the GOP.”

Whatever.

Democratic incumbent Chris Dodd, facing strong GOP opposition in his own home state and who decided not to run for re-election as a result, is going down swinging at anyone he can connect with… fellow Dems included. Following last week’s GOP success in Massachusetts, the nothing-to-lose senator from Connecticut suggested his party should take at least a one-month time out from trying to reform health care, to allow everyone to regroup following his party’s loss of its filibuster-proof majority.

Dodd’s need for an effective fat burner diet pill aside, he provided a rare common-sense comment on the issue he was demagoguing to swift passage only a few days ago. Dodd apparently blames the Obama-Reid-Pelosi hardball push on health care reform on his own perilous drop in the polls and “voluntary” decision not to run for re-election.

Interesting. Very interesting.

Former US Senator Norm Coleman, seen by many as the candidate in either party most likely to broker a stadium deal for the Minnesota Vikings, has decided to sit out of the race to replace presidential hopeful Tim Pawlenty, who decided to forego a possible third term as Minnesota governor.

Coleman lost a tough, close battle with Al Franken for the US Senate seat from Minnesota, in an election marked by allegations of ACORN-inspired election fraud – even though the court system refused to consider such evidence.

While many saw Coleman as the biggest name the GOP could field to replace Pawlenty, the truth is that Coleman is a notorious RINO and was not considered a welcome entrant by the conservative wing of the party. By sitting out the race, there remains a chance a real conservative could prevail from the primary fight.

Still, one has to wonder why Coleman chose to sit out an election he thought he could win; does Franken have pictures of Coleman taking womens vitamins or something? Doubtful.

The RINO factor could make today’s Senate special election moot, even if Republican Scott Brown wins the seat. Why? Because even with only 40 seats in the Senate currently, at least eight of them are still in the hands of RINOs.

These fake Republicans who consistently vote with the Democrats have tenuously held together so far in opposing ObamaCare, but once the Dems lose their filibuster-proof majority, any one of them could be a legit threat to jump ship and vote with the Dems, even if they remain in the GOP.

They include, in no particular order, Susan Collins, Olympia Snow, John McCain, George Voinovich, Lisa Murkowski, Richard Lugar, Robert Bennett and Thad Cocharan.

It doesn’t require an online degrees to see that even if Brown is elected – and he a potential RINO himself – it may not be as big a deal as some conservatives are hoping it is.

Regardless of today’s special election in Massachusetts that could take away the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, the nation will see some kind of health care reform, according to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The power-drunk Dem diva said, “Let’s remove all doubt, we will have healthcare one way or another. Certainly the dynamic would change depending on what happens in Massachusetts. Just the question about how we would proceed. But it doesn’t mean we won’t have a health care bill.”

Never mind that most Americans would rather hear William Shatner discuss acne home remedies than hear another presentation on ObamaCare; we’re gonna get it shoved down our throats no matter what, apparently. After all, 59 votes is still a vast majority.

Today, Massachusetts will hold an election to fill the vacant Senate seat once filled by the late Teddy Kennedy, and it appears that a Republican may have a chance to not only win the seat in liberal Massachusetts, but could go on to take away the Dems’ filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. That could help stop the ObamaCare plan that looks to imperil the nation’s budget, as well as its quality of care.

According to RealClearPolitics, Brown currently leads Democrat Coakley by nine points. In liberal Massachusetts. Wow. Of course, it helps that Brown is talking issues while Coakley is mumbling something about handing out Nordic Track promotion codes or some such nonsense.

Levity aside, a nine-point lead could be enough to put Brown beyond the margin of error; all eyes will be on Massachusetts over the next 24 hours or so.

With two top Dems already announcing their retirement from the U.S. Senate despite their party holding a filibuster-proof 60-40 majority, things are looking sweet for a conservative revolution next November, so long as the GOP remembers its Reagan conservative roots. While over-confident Dems are already selecting office furniture for their re-election, there are at least seven vulnerable Dem seats that could change hands in a year – but only if the GOP remains humble, cagey and conservative.

Here’s the Top Seven Vulnerable Dem seats:

1. Connecticut – Christopher Dodd – OUT!

Facing strong challenges in a solidly blue state from Republican hopefuls Rob Simmons and former WWE CEO Linda McMahon, Dodd stepped down today, clearing a path for popular Connecticut state attorney general Sidney Blumenthal to step in and try to hold the seat for his party; no polls as yet indicate how Blumenthal would fare against McMahon or Simmons.

2. South Dakota – Brian Dorgan – OUT!

Dorgan, one of the somewhat moderate libs in the party, was getting destroyed by 19 points by SD Governor John Hoeven, and stepped down from pursuing a second term last week. No word on who might step forward to face off with Hoeven, but whispers center around former Senate minority leader Tom Daschle, though some are hoping for a fresher face that state voters haven’t rejected as recently as Daschle. Time will tell.

3. Colorado – Michael Bennet – Trailing by 10 points

Bennet has only 37 percent support and is facing off with popular former GOP Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, who has 46 percent support and growing. So far, Bennet sounds like he’ll be fighting to keep his seat.

4. Ohio – Lee Fisher – Trailing by 7 points.

This seat is actually held currently by retiring Republican Senator George Voinovich, but this is a state where Democrat Sherrod Brown won easily in 2008, riding the Obama coattails. So with Republican Rob Portman holding a lead larger than the poll’s margin of error, that spells trouble for Dems hoping to pick up a seat.

5. New York – Kirsten Gillibrand – Leading by only 0.2 percent… In NEW YORK!

Gillibrand’s case is a special one; appointed by controversial New York Governor David Paterson, Gillibrand is a by-the-book liberal who goes off-book on gun control. Facing a stiff challenge from popular former GOP Governor George Pataki, who has a history of winning in New York, if Pataki wins, it could be a watermark of where things will trend throughout the rest of the nation next November.

6. Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter – Trailing by 4 points

Specter, a former RINO who finally got honest and switch to the Dems, is facing a serious threat from GOP challenger Pat Toomey. Many voters still feel burned by Specter’s party-switch, and this is the first time he will be facing voters since the balance-shifting about-face in the Senate.

7. Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln – Support at 40 percent or lower

While the GOP is busy picking from among four candidates to oust her, all four potential challengers are polling well ahead of Ms. Lincoln. She may be paying the deepest price for her handling of health care, as well as other issues.

8. Nevada – Harry Reid – Polling in the mid-40s

The GOP is choosing from two strong contenders, but so far both poll well ahead of the sitting Senate Majority Leader, who has come under fire for his handling of health care and the Senate, as well as some local scandals that his people have tried to sweep under the rug.

While the GOP has several seats at stake as well, if conservatives can rally the party and take, say, five out of eight of these vulnerable seats at minimum, it could be enough to swing the Senate back to a balance of power that would force Dems to at least deal with a GOP minority, rather than shut them out entirely.

It might take two strong election cycles at minimum for Republicans to ever hope to win back the Senate, but they could gain a lot of ground next November; instead of a 60-40 Dem majority, there’s a chance the gap could narrow to as close as 53-47 next fall; that would put control of the Senate back up for grabs in 2012.

Unless, of course, the GOP finds a way to blow it. Nominating a bunch of Democrat-Lite candidates in the mold of John McCain would be a sign of a blown opportunity to come.